Nordic low CO2 emission scenarios - implemented in the GAINS model

Potential impacts on air pollution following Nordic low greenhouse gas emission initiatives. Scenario analysis performed with the GAINS model

image of Nordic low CO2 emission scenarios - implemented in the GAINS model

The results from this study show that the technical measures to avoid Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and air pollutants in a Nordic energy system in many cases can result in cost savings for society due to reduced expenses on energy. Environmental benefits achieved due to energy demand savings and structural changes in the energy system would make it easier for the Nordic countries to reach the air pollution targets as well as post-Kyoto targets for GHG. Some of the measures would also make it easier to reach European Air Quality targets. All strategies do not imply co-benefits between air pollution emission reduction and GHG emission reduction. For example, GHG emission reduction through increased use of bio fuels risk imposing a trade-off between air pollution and GHG emission abatement since increased use of bio fuels could risk increasing the emissions of air pollutants. These co-benefits and the risk for conflicts between air quality and climate change should be more emphasised in the development of future Nordic low CO2 energy and emission strategies. The project group also suggests that these Nordic strategies should be developed as joint efforts between the Nordic countries.



Impacts of the low emission scenarios

In this chapter the results from this study are presented. The results show the differences between the Nordic BSL scenarios and the Nordic low emission scenarios. The potential impact from the “What-if” scenario is also presented. Since emission reductions in the Nordic countries affect other countries in Europe, these countries are also included in the results. The other countries (Poland and Germany, as well as all other countries in Europe) are summarised in the tables as “Other”. When the tables present emissions, “Other” includes Poland and Germany. When the tables present environmental impacts, “Other” includes European countries outside of the Nordic countries. The results are presented in the following order: Impact on emissions, environmental impacts, and resulting abatement cost.


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