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Interaction between climate change, air pollution and related impacts

image of Interaction between climate change, air pollution and related impacts

This report contains the discussions and recommendations from a workshop held in Copenhagen 28-29 August 2008, where climate scientists and air pollution scientist from the Nordic countries were gathered to discuss the interaction between climate change, air pollution and related impacts.

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Impacts of climate change on air pollution

There is a large year to year variability in meteorological conditions, which affect air pollution levels. For example, the year to year variability in meteorology generally dominates over the year to year variability in emissions for PM2.5, but it is very dependent on geographical region in Europe. The emissions of PM2.5 in 2010 are predicted to be reduced with 25–35% compared to emissions from 2000, however, this may “drown” in the effect of the meteorological variability, which is of the same order of magnitude, and may therefore not be observed. The emissions of PM2.5 in 2020 are predicted to be reduced with 35–50% compared to emissions from 2000, which is larger than the variability in meteorology, and may be observed. For O3 the emission reduction from 2000 to 2010 is 5–7% which is approximately the same as the variability in O3 concentrations induced by variability in meteorological variables. This is also the case for 2020. The meteorological driver of the chemistry transport model (CTM) is also important. In an experiment, the change of meteorological driver resulted in variations in concentrations of PM2.5 of the same order of magnitude as variations from year to year variability of meteorological variables. With respect to deposition the meteorological variability is the most important.

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