Baltic Energy Technology Scenarios 2018

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Baltic Energy Technology Scenarios 2018 (BENTE) is a scenario-based energy system analysis that explores the changes in the Baltic countries’ energy systems. What are the drivers and their impacts in the following decades? What would be required for the Baltic countries to meet their climate and energy targets in 2030, and what development would lead the Baltics towards a 2°C pathway? The report finds that the Baltic countries’ proposed renewable energy (RE) targets can be achieved using domestic resources. More renewable energy (electricity, heat and fuels) lets energy demanding sectors reduce GHG emissions and increase the RE share. However, the Baltic countries still do not reach their Effort Sharing Sector’s 2030 targets in the 4°C Scenario (4DS). Without policies to stimulate local renewable energy generation, the Baltics are likely to become large net importers of electricity.



Energy system modelling in Latvia

To analyse the energy system, several analysis tools have been used in Latvia, e.g. EFOM multi-period linear programming optimisation model used from 1994–2000 in research projects focusing on electricity and district heating. Few studies have been done using MESSAGE, BALMOREL, MESAP (PlaNet), and ENPEP-BALANCE models. Since 1995 MARKAL has been used for energy and environmental system analysis in Latvia, e.g. GHG emission and pollutant projections for National Communications and Biennial Reports under the UNFCCC and Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution. The model covers the entire energy system of Latvia (energy balance with further final demand disaggregation) and other IPCC CRF sectors represented at the GHG emission level.


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